China Faces Economic Headwinds as Trump’s 104% Tariffs Take Effect - Issue #32☕

Good morning. Its Friday again, but a sunny one. As we head into the weekend, here is what’s brewing:

Featured Updates:

• Microlending Hits N$8.1 Billion: Namibia’s microlending grew to N$8.1 billion in Q4 2024, up 12.8% yearly. New loans jumped 15.9% to 190,973, but arrears linger at N$1.3 billion—folks are borrowing big but struggling to pay!

• TransNamib Taps RedForce: TransNamib hired RedForce to chase N$48 million in old debts starting April 1, dodging open bidding flak. It’s a cash grab, but critics cry foul on the process!

• US Tariffs Bite at 21%: Since April 5, Namibia’s beef, fish, and minerals face a 21% US tariff, threatening AGOA perks. Diplomats are scrambling to soften the blow!

• China Feels 104% Tariff Heat: Trump’s 104% tariffs on China’s $440 billion US exports—like electronics and toys—could shake global trade. China’s fighting back with rare earth curbs!

• Android Shift Worries Devs: Google’s move to hide Android updates from developers until finalized has China’s app makers fretting over costs and delays. Huawei’s HarmonyOS might gain ground!

• Google’s Gemini Glow-Up: Gemini 2.5 Flash and new Workspace AI tools—like auto-analysis in Sheets—dropped at Cloud Next. Fast, cheap, and smart—perfect for Friday productivity!

• Start a Business Tip: “You don’t have to be great to start, but you have to start to be great”—Zig Ziglar. Take a small step this weekend and build your dream brick by brick!

Enjoy the read and have a blessed weekend ahead! ☕

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY 

Namibia’s Microlending Sector Expands to N$8.1 Billion in Q4 2024

The microlending sector in Namibia recorded remarkable growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the total loan book increasing by 11.1% quarter-on-quarter and 12.8% year-on-year, reaching N$8.1 billion, according to the Namibia Financial Institutions Supervisory Authority (NAMFISA). This growth underscores the sector's critical role in providing financial services to individuals and small businesses.

Key Drivers of Growth:

• Loan Disbursements:
  Term lender loans, which account for 94% of the total loan book, grew by 10.7% from the previous quarter and 10.1% year-on-year, reaching N$7.6 billion.

• New Loans Surge:
  The number of new loans issued increased by 13% quarter-on-quarter and 15.9% year-on-year, totaling 190,973 loans during the period.

• Payday Lenders Dominate:
  Payday lenders accounted for 76% of new loans issued, while term lenders contributed 24%. The average loan disbursement for payday lenders rose to N$3,875, while term lenders saw a decline to N$27,885.

Challenges in Repayment:

Despite the growth in loan issuance, repayment challenges persist:

• Total Arrears:
  Arrears decreased by 4.6% quarterly but remained high at N$1.3 billion, representing 17% of the total loan book.

• Arrears Breakdown:

  • Term borrowers owed N$1.2 billion in arrears (down by 6.9%), with overdue payments exceeding 120 days accounting for 11%.

  • Payday borrowers faced higher repayment difficulties, with arrears totaling N$109 million and overdue payments exceeding 120 days making up 13%.

Borrower Trends:

The total number of household borrowers stood at 240,475 by December 2024—a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, despite a quarterly decline of 2.3%. This decrease was driven mainly by term lenders.

The Bottom Line:

Namibia’s microlending sector continues to expand, driven by robust demand for short-term and long-term credit solutions. However, repayment difficulties remain a concern, highlighting the need for enhanced financial literacy and risk management strategies to ensure sustainable growth in the sector.

Source: The Brief

TransNamib Appoints RedForce Debt Management Amid Procurement Controversy

TransNamib has appointed RedForce Debt Management to recover N$48 million in outstanding debts owed to the national railway operator. The 12-month contract, effective April 1, 2025, has sparked criticism from industry players who claim the appointment bypassed open tender procedures required for contracts exceeding the public procurement threshold.

Key Details of the Appointment:

• Debt Recovery Scope:
  RedForce will focus on recovering debts older than 60 days from clients and tenants. The cost of debt collection will be borne by defaulters as a penalty, not by TransNamib.

• Procurement Process:
  Acting Chief Finance Executive Monde Inambao-Samwele defended the appointment, stating that RedForce was selected through a transparent request-for-proposal process. She emphasized that RedForce met all technical and financial evaluation criteria and was deemed the most advantageous bidder.

• Strategic Initiative:
  Inambao-Samwele described the engagement as a strategic move to strengthen revenue collection and improve TransNamib’s financial position amid ongoing fiscal challenges.

Industry Backlash:

Critics argue that the contract should have been subjected to open bidding due to its value exceeding the public procurement threshold. Some industry players, including Qaurtle Debt Collection, have questioned the legitimacy of the process and are considering legal action. They claim they were excluded from participating despite being qualified service providers.

RedForce’s Defense:

RedForce CEO Julius Nyamazana refuted allegations of favoritism, stating that the company was awarded the contract through a legally compliant process based on merit, experience, and capacity to recover debt effectively. Nyamazana clarified that the contract is performance-based, with compensation tied to successful debt recovery rather than a predetermined monetary value.

TransNamib’s Financial Struggles:

The railway operator has faced persistent financial difficulties. In 2022, the government wrote off N$410 million in debt, and in 2024, TransNamib secured a N$2.6 billion loan from the Development Bank of Namibia (DBN) and Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) to fund new locomotives and wagons.

The Bottom Line:

While TransNamib defends its debt recovery strategy as vital for improving its financial health, concerns about transparency in procurement processes remain unresolved. As scrutiny intensifies, both TransNamib and RedForce must ensure accountability and compliance to maintain public trust.

 Source: The Namibian

Namibia Grapples with 21% US Tariffs on Key Exports, Seeks Diplomatic Resolution

Namibia’s beef, fish, and mineral exports now face a 21% tariff imposed by the United States under President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” policy, which took effect on April 5, 2025. The move has raised concerns about the impact on Namibia's export competitiveness and its trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

Key Concerns:

1. Affected Products:
   The tariffs target key Namibian exports, including beef, fish, and several minerals. These products are critical to Namibia’s economy and have historically benefited from duty-free access to the US market under AGOA.

2. Economic Impact:
   Minister of International Relations and Trade Selma Ashipala-Musavyi warned that the tariffs could lead to price increases for US consumers, reducing demand for Namibian goods and disrupting established supply chains. This could result in a significant decline in Namibia’s export earnings.

3. Lack of Consultation:
   Ashipala-Musavyi criticized the unilateral nature of the tariffs, stating they were implemented without prior consultation or transparency. She argued that this contradicts World Trade Organization (WTO) principles and undermines the spirit of AGOA.

Government Response:

• Stakeholder Engagement:
  The Ministry of International Relations is working with stakeholders through the Namibia Trade Forum to assess the full impact of the tariffs on local industries.

• Diplomatic Efforts:
  Namibia has initiated discussions with the US Embassy in Windhoek and plans to engage regional bodies like the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) for a coordinated response.

• Advocacy for Fair Trade:
  Namibia is calling on the US to adhere to WTO rules and ensure transparency in trade decisions that affect smaller economies.

Broader Implications:

The tariffs not only threaten Namibia’s export revenue but also jeopardize its preferential access under AGOA. Executive Director of International Relations Penda Naanda noted that this measure creates unfair market conditions for Namibian products, potentially destabilizing their position in global markets.

The Bottom Line:

As Namibia navigates this challenging trade landscape, its government is prioritizing diplomatic engagement and regional collaboration to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. The outcome of these efforts will be crucial for safeguarding Namibia's economic interests and maintaining its foothold in international markets.

Source: The Namibian

China Faces Economic Headwinds as Trump’s 104% Tariffs Take Effect

China's economy is bracing for significant disruption following the imposition of 104% tariffs on Chinese goods by the United States under President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Despite Beijing's efforts to tariff-proof its economy by boosting domestic consumption and investing in key industries, analysts warn that the country remains critically vulnerable to the economic fallout.

Impact of Tariffs:

1. Export Dependency:
   The U.S. remains China's largest single-country buyer, with exports worth $440 billion in 2024 compared to $145 billion in imports. Machinery, electronics, textiles, footwear, furniture, and toys dominate these exports, but a supply glut could overwhelm domestic markets as demand from the U.S. declines.

2. Economic Strain:
   China’s post-COVID recovery has been hampered by weak domestic demand, rising unemployment, and a long-running property crisis. Analysts like Henry Gao argue that sustained high tariffs could further weaken China's already fragile economy.

3. Limited Alternatives:
   Tang Yao of Peking University notes that many Chinese products are tailored for American and European markets, making redirection to domestic consumers a challenging task.

Beijing’s Response:

• Strategic Retaliation:
  China has imposed reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods and announced export controls on seven rare earth elements critical to industries like consumer electronics and magnetic imaging.

• Economic Reforms:
  A Communist Party editorial described the tariffs as a “strategic opportunity” to accelerate structural reforms and cement domestic consumption as the main driver of growth.

• Global Diversification:
  Since Trump’s first term, China has fortified trade relationships with Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America to reduce dependency on U.S. markets.

Challenges Ahead:

While Beijing projects confidence in handling the economic storm, experts like Frederic Neumann from HSBC caution that the Chinese economy cannot easily absorb the impact of soaring tariffs. Falling U.S. demand may force authorities to introduce measures like consumer subsidies or trade-in schemes to sustain domestic consumption.

The Bottom Line:

As China refines its retaliatory strategies and seeks global partnerships, it faces an uphill battle against high tariffs that threaten its export-driven economy. The coming months will test Beijing’s ability to adapt and maintain growth amid mounting external pressures.

Source: ALJAZEERA

TECH

Google’s Android Transparency Shift Sparks Concerns Among Chinese Developers

Google’s decision to change its Android development model has unsettled developers in China, where Android powers nearly all non-Huawei and non-Apple smartphones. The shift involves moving Android development entirely to Google’s internal branches, with source code released only after major updates are finalized—a departure from its previous open-source approach through the Android Open Source Project (AOSP).

Key Changes:

1. Closed Development:
   Google will now develop Android internally, ending real-time public visibility into updates and features. AOSP will continue to host finalized code but will no longer provide access to in-progress changes.

2. Streamlined Workflow:
   Google argues that this move will simplify development, reduce sync issues between public and private branches, and enhance efficiency.

3. Impact on Developers:
   Developers in China fear increased costs, delays in app development, and potential fragmentation of the Android ecosystem. Without early access to updates, adapting apps and custom skins may become more challenging.

Concerns Raised:

• Transparency Loss:
  Critics warn that the shift erodes transparency and limits community input. Previously, developers could track commits and anticipate changes through AOSP, allowing for early feedback and adaptation.

• Fragmentation Risks:
  Smaller OEMs and independent developers outside Google’s Mobile Services ecosystem may struggle to keep pace with Android’s release cadence, potentially leading to ecosystem fragmentation.

Huawei’s HarmonyOS Opportunity:

Some analysts believe Google’s decision could benefit Huawei’s HarmonyOS, which has already diverged from Android. Developers may increasingly consider HarmonyOS as an alternative platform for app development.

Google’s Assurance:

In response to concerns, Google assured its China-based partners that future updates would still be uploaded to AOSP after finalization. However, the company did not clarify the frequency of these releases.

The Bottom Line:

While Google aims to streamline Android development, its shift toward closed-door processes has sparked debate among developers globally—especially in China. As the Android ecosystem adapts to these changes, questions about transparency and inclusivity remain at the forefront of discussions about its future.

Source: South China Morning Post

Google Unveils Gemini 2.5 Flash, Workspace AI Tools, and Agentic AI at Cloud Next 2025

At the Google Cloud Next event, Google announced significant updates to its Gemini AI ecosystem, showcasing its advancements in generative AI and productivity tools. These updates include the debut of Gemini 2.5 Flash, new AI-powered features for Google Workspace, and expanded adoption of agentic AI.

1. Gemini 2.5 Flash: A Cost-Efficient Powerhouse

• What It Is:
  Gemini 2.5 Flash is a streamlined version of the advanced Gemini 2.5 Pro model, designed for faster and more cost-efficient operations. It uses "test-time compute," an emerging technique that optimizes processing power based on task requirements.

• Key Features:

  • Faster performance and lower operational costs compared to its predecessor.

  • Ideal for high-volume tasks and production applications.

  • Soon to be available on Vertex AI, AI Studio, and the standalone Gemini app.

• Public Preview:
  The Gemini 2.5 Pro model is now available for public preview on Vertex AI and the Gemini app, following its success in topping leaderboards like Chatbot Arena.

2. New Workspace Tools: Transforming Productivity

Google is integrating Gemini models into Google Workspace to enhance productivity through automation and advanced data handling:

• AI Features Include:

  • Audio generation for Google Docs.

  • Automated data analysis in Google Sheets.

  • Workflow automation via Google Workspace Flows.

• Agentic AI in Action:
  These tools leverage agentic AI, enabling multistep reasoning and task execution across Workspace apps. For example, managing customer service requests can now be fully automated.

3. Adoption of Model Context Protocol (MCP):

To improve reliability and data access for its models, Google announced its adoption of Anthropic's open-source Model Context Protocol (MCP). This protocol enables secure, two-way connections between data sources and AI tools, ensuring Gemini models can access necessary data efficiently.

Why It Matters:

These updates position Google as a leader in generative AI by focusing on practical applications that enhance both enterprise workflows and consumer experiences. The introduction of cost-efficient models like Gemini 2.5 Flash underscores Google's commitment to making powerful AI accessible to a broader audience.

The Bottom Line:

Google's announcements at Cloud Next 2025 highlight its relentless push to innovate in the competitive AI landscape. With Gemini 2.5 Flash, new Workspace tools, and agentic AI capabilities, Google is setting new benchmarks for efficiency, productivity, and accessibility in the generative AI space.

Source: Google Blog

PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT

Starting a Business: The Courage to Begin

Starting a business is more than just launching a venture—it’s about taking a leap of faith into the unknown, fueled by your dreams and determination. Here’s why starting small and staying persistent can lead to big rewards:

1. Embrace the First Step:

“You don’t have to be great to start, but you have to start to be great.” – Zig Ziglar
Every successful business begins with a single idea and the courage to act on it. Don’t wait for the perfect moment; take the first step today.

2. Learn Through Action:

“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” – Winston Churchill
Mistakes are inevitable, but they’re also opportunities for growth. Each challenge you face will teach you something valuable.

3. Build Your Vision Brick by Brick:

“Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant.” – Robert Louis Stevenson
Focus on consistent effort rather than immediate results. Every small action contributes to building your dream.

Starting a business is about believing in yourself and your vision. Take that first step, stay resilient, and remember—every great success story begins with someone daring to try.

(To go, is to see).